Breeders Cup Saturday Picks
By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —-
Three horses in particular have the chance to become immortal all-time greats on Saturday at Keeneland. Golden Pal tries to win his third Breeders’ Cup race, a fete seldom accomplished. Nest faces an absolutely loaded field in the Distaff as she goes out to prove she can beat some extremely accomplished competition. She would immediately rise to near the top of all-time great Distaff winnesr, and start all the talk of her racing as a four-year-old against her male counterparts. No horse in the recent past has captured the attention of racing fans and handicappers like Flightline, the four-year-old son of Tapit. He has raced only five times, winning by huge margins each time, and is being compared to Secretariat and other immortal greats of the game. These horses may not offer great betting value, but watching each one should be spectacular. There are other races where contention runs deep, and handicappers can make hay if they can find winners in those races, or if they bet against and beat the aforementioned trio. Whichever is your approach, enjoy and good luck.
Race 3 – BCFM Sprint (G1) – 7 furlongs
There will be speed both inside and outside in this race prompting what should be a fast, honest pace scenario. ML favorite Goodnight Olive (8) should sit in the pocket ready to pounce. She will be tough to beat. The same will be true of Frank’s Rockette (5) and Edgeway (2), making them threats to win or hit the board. Ce Ce (4) should be mid-pack, hoping to repeat last year’s win in this race. The late closing Obligatory (7) and Chi Town Lady (3) should benefit from the pace scenario from the back of the pack., Obligatory excels at finishing these types of races. Echo Zulu (13) won the BC Juvenile Filly last year, and she will be part of the pace scenario from her outside post. This sets up to be a race where trip and trouble will probably dictate the outcome. I’m taking a shot with Obligatory to win at the wire, edging Goodnight Olive and Frank’s Rockette. I’ll put Chi Town Lady in fourth, hoping for some value. Go deep in Pick 4 here. Picks: 7-5-8-3
Race 4 – BC Turf Spr (G1) – 5-1/2 furlongs
Golden Pal (8) is so fast out of the gate and so fast down the backstretch that it would probably take an unseen event for him to not run his best race and win. Such things happen in horseracing, and if it does here I think the two most likely to win become top Euro Highfield Princess (6) and the always dangerous Ward trainee Arrest Me Red (7). The former is a pace presser and the latter a closer. Campanelle (4) is another from the Ward barn that could hit the board. There are many to pick from in this race is you want to play against Golden Pal. Go short in the P4 unless you are strong in the beat Golden Pal camp. Picks: 8-6-7-4
Race 5 – BC Dirt Mile (G1) – 1 mile race
This race is a puzzler unless you think 5-2 ML favorite Cody’s Wish (7) is a lock. You have the question of what to make of two Derby horses, Simplification (2) and a Cyberknife (9). Many have been waiting for Simplification to race at this distance all summer, and Brad Cox has been honest that Cyberknife is here rather than in the Classic because Flightline is not. Either angle could get you a win at decent to real good odds if they can beat the favorite. Pipeline (3) was the pacesetter in the Forego when Cody’s Wish upset Jackie’s Warrior, but it is legitimate to wonder about his ability around two turn. Law Professor (4) is a longshot, coming in off two straight wins going two turns (one on grass). His barn change seems to have been a plus. Laurel River (6) very well could try to wire this field for Bob Baffert (seen that before), and I suspect he will take his share of win money. Gunite (5) is a great 3yo colt, but he’s never won going two turns nor shown any indication that the extra distance will be to his benefit. Three Technique (11) probably is not a win candidate, but his style fits those who get up for a piece. By now, you should conclude that this is a very deep play for me in a P4. Since I have to pick, here goes. Picks: 4-9-6-11
Race 6 – BCFM Turf (G1) – 1-3/16 miles
I’m not going to over complicate my approach here. I’m taking a Euro that offers a good price, along with the other Euros that look best to me. Nashwa (3) and Above the Curve (4) finished second and third in the Prix de l’Opera G1 last out at Longchamp. Tuessday (5) owns a win over Nashwa, and looks tobe the one to most benefit from firmer ground. In Italian (11) has become a beast for Chad Brown, winning G1 races on the lead, gate to wire. They most definitely will have to catch her. Toy (7) has set the pace for Aidan O’Brien in the past, and I suspect he will use her to make sure In Italian is not too comfortable on the lead. Moira (12) is a Canadian-bred filly that rises to every challenge. A good effort by her is not out of the question. Rougir (9) returns, but I don’t get the same vibe from here this year compared to last. I’m taking a shot with Tuesday, but expect the three Euros mentioned at the start of this piece to be at the wire very close together. Basing Pick 4 on the Euros. Picks: 5-3-4-12
Race 7 – Sprint (G1) – 6 furlongs
This was going to be the battle of Jack Christopher and Jackie’s Warrior (9). The absence of Jack Christopher should make the pace scenario very favorable for Jackie’s Warrior, whose only blemish came in last year’s edition of this race. Aloha West (5) is not likely to get a setup like he did in 2021, but he will be flying late regardless. Elite Power (6) was forwardly placed when winning the G2 Vosburgh, but he has won from farther off the pace. Kimari (2) is second on the ML at 4-1, and he is two for two at 6 furlongs. This son of Munnings has really blossomed this year as a five-year-old. American Theorem (4) is another late closer, and he offers some value at 10-1. Won’t be a deep play in P4 even if Jackie is not a single. Picks: 9-2-5-4.
Race 8 – BC Mile (G1) – 1 mile on Turf
Modern Games (4) has run twice in North America., and he dominated in both races. There are horseplayers who deserve to get their money back after the gate screw-up last year that saw him win easily while being a gate scratch when communications broke down during loading. The trainer-jockey combo of Appleby and Buick has won at an 88% clip this year and at a 62% rate in BC turf races. It is hard to pick against this colt. Regal Glory (8) has run well at Keeneland, but has only won once on this track. All the same, it is hard not to like this Chad Brown trainee. I suggest playing these two in an exacta box for sure. Dreamloper (3) is another Euro worthy of consideration. The value horse to me in this race is Ivar (6) from the barn of Paulo Lobo. At 15-1 odds he is a must play for me in the exotics. Annapolis (11) probably won’t get the trip he got last out here in the G1 Turf Mile, but he is a legitimate player in this race. Then there is the question of what to do with Kinross (13) and Domestic Spending (14). The former is the British Champion sprinter and winner of four straight races. He’s trying to win at this distance for the first time, and evidently the maker of the ML thinks he can. Domestic Spending was arguably the top turf horse in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021. He’s been on the shelf for 15 months, and a win here would be one of the great training accomplishments of all time. His outside post position is no bargain either. I’ll try to get as deep as possible in this race in the P4. Picks: 4-8-6-14-3
Race 9 – BC Distaff (G1) – 1-1/8 miles
What a field! I’ll cut to the chase in saying that I’m confident that Nest (6) is very much the real deal. As noted previously, things don’t work out always in horseracing. Under most scenarios I believe she will win the Distaff and plant her flag as one of the very best ever. There are two scenarios in which I think Nest could lose. The first is a loose-on-the lead Society (8) on a speed favoring oval who just cannot be caught no matter how good the others are. That’s not a high likelihood but one to consider. The other is that Nest encounters some kind of trouble and the race is won by one of two other terrific contenders, Malathaat (1) or Clariiere (4). Search Results (7) is a very fine filly, but I cannot see a scenario where she beats all three of top ones. Secret Oath (3) has been exposed , so a bottom spot in the superfecta seems to me her very highest expectation. Scenario 1 Picks: 6-1-4-8. Scenario 2: 8-6-1-4 Scenario 3: 4-3-8-1
Race 10 – BC Turf (G1) – 1-1/2 miles
Charles Appleby has two in here that rank at the top of my list. Rebel’s Romance (5) has won four straight, including two G1 affairs. Do not downgrade German turf route races as their form stands up worldwide. Nation’s Pride (7) is a three-year-old who has won twice in New York this year, and you get the Appleby-Buick duo. Andy Serling hosted a twitter poll on possible upset winners of several races, and my response was to choose Mishriff (11) as my choice to do so. His form has darkened some this year which makes him a gift at 6-1. He runs only in G1 races against the best in the world. John Gosden made it known that Mishriff did not care for the marshy going at Longchamp last month. He’s worthy of exacta play if you don’t put him on top. War Like Goddess (2) is the American horse at shortest odds, and she loves the 12 furlong distance. She just missed winning the BCFM Turf last year. Masterpiece (8) can be used on the bottom of longer tickets. Red Knight (10) is in great form and on the ML at 20-1. Broome (4) was second in this race last year when caught at the wire. He usually is running late. Several good plays in the P4. Picks: 7-11-5-10
Race 11 – BC Classic – 1-1/4 miles
I’ll start with Life Is Good (2). You either think that the Dubai World Cup can be ignored, or you believe he is distance challenged and won’t make 10 furlongs very well. Epicenter (6) is the most accomplished other horse in this race and will likely be the Eclipse Award Champion Three-Year-Old. Taiba (1) has improved all summer long, and Bob Baffert has him tuned to a fine pitch.. I cannot add anything to what you don’t already know about Flightline (4). If you are like 90% of the handicapping world, you believe this race is his coronation. Olympiad (7) and Hot Rod Charlie (5) are hard knocking four-year-olds that will compete with all the mortal ones in this race. I’ve bet enough races like this to know that unless you are beating the favorite, the only way to make money is to find long odds horses that can hit the exacta and/or trifecta. Happy Saver (3) and Rich Strike (8) are those horses. Depending on the value, if I play this race I’ll put Flightline over the likes of Happy Saver, Hot Rod Charlie, and Rich Strike. Beyond that, it’s a watch and enjoy moment.
Picks: 4-6-1-5