Derby picks from “The Corner”

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
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TRINITY, Fla. – The 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., is here. I’ll give a few thoughts on each colt and then who I think should win.

With the defection of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar and Skinner, only 19 colts will “Run for the Roses.”

The colts are listed in post-positions from the rail out with odds, trainers and jockeys.

Hit Show (Candy Ride) 30-1. Trainer: Brad Cox. Jockey: Manny Franco. Last race: Second in Wood Memorial. He’s high on a lot of lists and he gets better if it’s wet.

Verifying (Justify) 15-1. Brad Cox. Tyler Gaffalione. Second in Blue Grass. He hasn’t lived up to the early season hype.

Two Phil’s (Hard Spun) 12-1. Larry Rivelli. Jareth Loveberry. Won Jeff Ruby Stakes. Has run better on synthetic than dirt, but don’t forget about Animal Kingdom in 2011.

Confidence Game (Candy Ride) 20-1. Kent Desormeaux. James Graham. Won Rebel Stakes. He hasn’t run since Feb. 25, but his last work (May 27) was impressive. A sloppy track is this guy’s game.

Tapit Trice (Tapit) 5-1. Todd Pletcher. Luis Saez. Won Blue Grass Stakes. If he gets into trouble he has shown he can get out of it. I like this guy.

Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) 12-1. Todd Pletcher. Jose Ortiz. Won Louisiana Derby. A lot of people thought the race at Fair Grounds was slow, but that may have been by design.

Reincarnate (Good Magic) 50-1. Tim Yakteen. John Velazquez. Third in Arkansas Derby. I’m clueless with this one. He seems like he’ll get there and then he doesn’t.

Mage (Good Magic) 15-1. Gustavo Delgado. Javier Castellano. Second in Florida Derby. This one could be getting good just at the right time.

Skinner: SCRATCHED

Practical Move: SCRATCHED

Disarm (Gun Runner) 30-1. Steve Assmussen. Joel Rosario. Third in Stonestreet Lexington. Trainer thinks the light has finally come on with this one. He disappointed me most of the spring.

Jace’s Road (Quality Road) 15-1. Brad Cox. Florent Geroux. Third in Louisiana Derby. He’s a wise guy horse.

Sun Thunder (Into Mischief) 50-1. Ken McPeek. Brian Hernandez Jr. Fourth in Blue Grass. Trainer adds blinkers, but how many ways can I say no

.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) 8-1. Brad Cox. Flavien Prat. Won Arkansas Derby. Impressed a lot of people with that move at Oaklawn and he may be over bet because of it.

Forte (sire: Violence) 3-1. Todd Pletcher. Irad Ortiz Jr. Won Florida Derby. 2-year-old champion and one of the picks.

Raise Cain (Violence) 50-1. Ben Colebrook. Gerardo Corrales. Fifth in Blue Grass. Won the Gotham in New York and then ran into better at Lexington.

Derma Sotogake (Mine Your Biscuits) 10-1. Otonashi Hidetaka. Christophe Lemaire. Won UAE Derby. This guy should be on the lead and could go all the way. If a Japanese horse is going to win, this could be it.

Rocket Can (Into Mischief) 30-1. Bill Mott. Junior Alvarado. Fourth in Arkansas Derby. He gets blinkers, but he’s still not getting any of my money.

Lord Miles SCRATCHED

Continuar: SCRATCHED

Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief) 30-1. Dale Romans. Corey Lanerie. Third in Florida Derby. Colt drew into the race with the scratch of Practical Move. Cyclone Mischief will wear saddlecloth 21.

Mandarin Hero (Shanghi Bobby) 20-1. Terunobu Fujita. Kazushi Kimura. Second in Santa Anita Derby and gave Practical Move all he wanted in that race. He will wear saddlecloth 22. Lord Miles scratch got him in.

King Russell (Creative Cause) 50-1. Ron Moquett. Rafael Bejarano. Second in Arkansas Derby but wasn’t close to the winner. He will wear saddlecloth 23. Continuar scratch got him in.

The five colts I like are Forte (15), Tapit Trice (5), Angel of Empire (14), Derma Sotogake (17) and Mandarin Hero (22). My shots will be Derma Sotogake and Mandarin Hero.

My trifecta will be Forte, Tapit Trice and Derma Sotogake, but I’ll be rooting for Tapit Trice to hit the wire first.

If you are looking at other shot horses try: Reincarnate (7), Mage (8) and Disarm (11).

*** You can catch Ron and Bob Hill’s Derby breakdown live at 9am CDT on 1450 Sports Radio out of Springfield, Il. or on their podcast.