Handicapping: D. Wayne Lukas, CDI, and April 6th Derby Preps

D. Wayne Lukas, CDI, and April 6th Derby Preps

By Bob Hill, TSV Writer —-

Gulfstream Photo

Last weekend D. Wayne Lukas gave Churchill Downs Inc. a less-than-subtle, well-deserved poke in the eye. After the Bob Baffert trained three-year-old colt Muth impressively won the Arkansas Derby, Lukas stated that the Kentucky Derby needs Bob Baffert and that the time had come to figure out a way forward with Baffert being eligible to enter horses in that race. The 88-year-old Lukas knows that the penalties invoked by CDI on Baffert have reached the point where those actions are seen as bullying and over-reach. Without arguing the merit of the original situation, Lukas said, “Enough is enough.”

CDI has tried to claim the high moral ground in this dispute by claiming to preserve the integrity of the sport and the welfare of the horses. Lukas basically has called “B.S.” on those claims, because CDI’s actions have actually resulted in the introduction of unneeded chaos into the Derby qualifying procedures and cheapened the quality of the race. Petulant behavior often produce negative, unintended consequences. The matter will not be resolved this year, but let’s hope this is the last year for such silliness.

This is the last big weekend of Derby Prep races, so starting next week the sorting out will begin in earnest leading to the filling of the gate on May 4th.

The G2 Wood Memorial – Aqueduct – 1-1/8 miles

Christophe Clement has never had a Kentucky Derby horse. He is regarded as a top turf trainer, and he has been successful world-wide on the grass. Deterministic (4), the 7-5 ML favorite in the Wood Memorial is likely to end that drought, and he is thought to be a true win contender by several handicappers. The horse already has 50 qualifying points so even a minor placing probably gets him in the Derby field, but I suspect that is not the goal of the connections. The one knock against Deterministic is that he has raced only two times, but the same is true of Tuscan Sky (9), the second choice of the ML maker. His works in Florida have been very strong in preparation for this test. The race lacks a horse with the obvious profile of a potential G2 winner unless you are high on Uncle Henry (13) based on his win in the slop in the Withers two months ago. His trainer, Robert Reid, is successful in bring Parx horses to New York.

Bill Mott sends out Resilience (1), who finished fourth in a competitive, but slow, running of the G2 Risen Star. The steadily improving colt gets first-time blinkers with Johnny V. aboard as pilot. He’ll have to improve more than he has this time out to win here. Mott also enters NY-bred Elysian Meadows (8), but he’d have to improve many lengths to challenge the good ones in this race. El Grande O (2) will appear in his 12th lifetime start in the Wood for top NY trainer Linda Rice. Another hit-the-board effort is possible.

As with so many races this winter and spring, handicappers face the challenge of figuring out if an entry’s last race in the mud was enhanced or harmed by the conditions. Such is the case here as the top ones here all ran in the slop last out. A dry, cold day is forecast for the Wood.

I’m picking Tuscan Sky on top, but I’ll cheer for Deterministic. Uncle Heavy has been good when drawn outside, and I suspect the Risen Star effort will propel Resilience forward.

Picks: 9-4-13-1-2

The G1 Toyota Blue Grass – Keeneland – 1-1/8 miles

I’m excited to see Sierra Leone (10) try to build on his visually impressive win in the Risen Star. I see him as one of a handful of top Derby contenders at this point. He’ll get to face Dornoch (4) who beat him by a nose in the G2 Remsen last December. That one exits his only start of his 3yo campaign with a victory in the G2 Fountain of Youth last month at Gulfstream. Dornoch is a front runner, and Sierra Leone is a stone cold closer. This matchup should be contested on a dry, fast track.

Many pundits see Just A Touch (6) as a serious contender here based on his speed figures and strong Keeneland works. The tall task of facing top stakes competition off of only two lifetime starts used to be unheard of, but in today’s racing world we’re seeing it more than once this Saturday. He’s a presser type, so he balances the running style continuum with the other top two.

Some others of note to consider for a vertical ticket are Top Conor (1), Be You (2), Seize the Grey (3), Good Money (5), Epic Ride (8), and Encino (11). Top Conor may be in the race to guarantee pace for Sierra Leone, but his maiden win was impressive. Be You posted a 96 Beyer figure when finally breaking his maiden last out. Seize the Grey is a Lukas trainee. Say no more on a big day. Good Money is the third Chad Brown entry, and he too may provide some pace for Sierra Leone. Epic Ride has run exclusively on synthetics, but he is a son of Blame so the connections are not stretching a point to find out what his dirt form could be. Encino is also a synth horse trying dirt for the first time for Brad Cox. He is a son of Derby winner Nyquist, and he beat Epic Ride in their most recent race at Turfway.

This looks like a great race on paper. I’m trusting that the Risen Star was a better race than its numbers suggest. There should be plenty of pace for Sierra Leone and maybe more than Dornoch can handle.

Picks: 10-6-4-2-3

The G1 Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita – 1-1/8 miles

Bob Baffert dominates this race. He has the short-priced favorite Imagination (4) this year, and his horses are ineligible to earn Derby points. That one faces off against the Sunland Derby winner Stronghold (3) who lost by a half-length to the other Baffert entry Wynstock (5) in the Los Alamitos Futurity last December.

The horse I’m most anxious to see in here is McVay (7), still a maiden after four tries, two of which were in graded stakes races. John Shireffs is the trainer, and he must have great faith in the horse to keep going up against proven winners. A second place finish here might put him in the Derby field where he would run as a maiden. I like the storyline of that scenario. Some support exists for John Sadler’s Tapalo (2), but his best run came on the Tapeta at Golden Gate.

Picks: 4-7-3-5