Road to the Kentucky Derby: Jeff Ruby Steaks Selection

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Writer —

Jeff Ruby Steaks G3 Selections

1-1/8 miles on Tapeta

We’ve reached the time of year in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby
where the prep races are stretched out to at least nine furlongs and
where the participants compete for 100-50-25-15-10 points per race.
The top two finishers in these races almost always earn enough points
to make the Derby field. Although a win in one of these 100-point
races is no guarantee of a Derby placement, the eventual winner of the
Run for the Roses is almost guaranteed to exit one of these preps
having run competitively.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks in recent years has produced several colts that
have been very good on Derby Day. Rich Strike and Two Phils
demonstrated that a good showing on the Tapeta can translate to the
dirt surface of Churchill Downs. With that in mind, let’s take a look
a this year’s field.

1 – Calling Card (20-1): Trained by Mike Maker, this New York-bred
son of Complexity will have to show vast improvement to compete here.
Perhaps Maker believes he will take to the Tapeta. He’s a toss for
me.

2 – Charlie’s to Blame (15-1): He’s won two straight on the turf for
trainer Peter Eurton. His sire Blame was a BC Classic winner so he
should handle the distance just fine. At 15-1, this guy is a possible
play in the exotics, although I think a win would be a stretch.

3 – California Burrito (7-2): Has shown steady improvement once he
moved onto the Tapeta at Turfway Park. He led gate-to-wire when
winning the major prep for this race, posting a low 90’s speed figure.
Front runners are often up against it on this surface, but he has won
from off the pace as well. Tactical speed is his asset. A player.

4 – Final Gambit (6-1): Broke his maiden last out on this track for
Brad Cox. His numbers do not seem to compare with others, but Cox is
always dangerous with any he enters. I do not get the 6-1 money line
for a horse that I likely will toss or put at the bottom of my ticket.

5 – Flying Mohawk (15-1): Has done all his running on turf to dates.
Won his last two races on the Fair Grounds grass while showing the
ability to finish strong. To compete, his grass form will have to
transfer to Tapeta and he’ll have to run faster than ever before.

6 – Baby Max (5-1): Runner-up to California Burrito in the prep for
this race. Has shown both good form and steady improvement after
moving to Tapeta. Gets blinkers for this race. His numbers are
competitive and his ML price is attractive.

7 – Giocoso (30-1): Best races have been on turf. Has not yet tried
the Tapeta. I cannot find an angle to recommend playing this
Desormeaux trainee.

8 – Innovator (15-1): First time trying Tapeta, and his lone win came
on a muddy track. He’s the expensive son of Authentic, and no one is
better at having one show up big when we least expect it than his
trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He’s very fast, and I expect him to go to the
front of this bunch right out of the gate. Not one I’ll key off of,
but one I might throw on a couple of tickets for fun.

9 –Poster (3-1): Winner of the G2 Remsen last fall was a
disappointing third in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s a
Godolphin homebred trained by Eoin Harty with Johnny V. taking the
mount. The connections are serious about this first try on
synthetics. Offspring of his sire Munnings, a brilliant sprinter,
have proven ability at classic distances, so that’s not a knock for
me. One of the ones.

10 – Maximum Promise (5-1}: Third in the major prep for this on a day
he had anything but a good trip. If Dettori can keep him from losing
contact with the leaders, he has the right style to upset this field.
He’s a play for me.

11 – Curvino (20-1): Tries the Tapeta for the first time showing
numbers that won’t compete with this field unless he shows vast
improvement. Pedigree suggest he’ll get better with added distance.
Not for me.

12 – He’s Not Joking (15-1): Returns to the surface on which he
excelled at Woodbine last fall. Did not fare well on the dirt at
Churchill or Gulfstream, but perhaps the return to his preferred
surface will produce a better effort. Intriguing play at 15-1.

13 – Candytown (20-1 AE): Still a maiden with only two lifetime
starts for Todd Pletcher. It’s hard to see him as a serous contender
should he draw into the field.

Selections: 9-10-3-2-6