KENTUCKY DERBY 151 SELECTIONS

Kentucky Derby 151 Selection
By Bob Hill, TSV Staff Writer

The big day is just around the corner and it is time to put all of the data-mining and opinion-seeking into action. Who do you like is the question we all ask and answer this week, so here is one more opinion to consider – or discard. Every Derby bettor has to decide to approach the race just like any other; or to mix in a good deal of speculation looking for a surprise (and valuable) winner. The selections here are largely in the first category – my picks based on how I would handicap any other race.

There are eight horses in this field of 20 that have never won a race if they have not been in first or second place at the second call (first half-mile). Several, indeed, have never won a race unless they have led gate-to-wire. As noted in a previous article, it seems extremely likely that the early pace of this Derby will be on the fast scale, ranging anywhere from moderately fast to suicidal. Suicidal early pace is the prime ingredient in wins by long-odds horses. When several horses run off vying for the lead they cook their own chances as well as any other ones running too close to their pace. If that’s the angle you want to play, there are many possible long shot winners to choose from in this race. I’d suggest you pick from mid-to-late closers like Final Gambit (3), (9) Burnham Square, (13) Publisher, (14) Tiztastic, (16) Coal Battle, or (19) Chuck of Gold your heart is set on a long-shot play.

My approach is based on the assumption (hope) that a suicidal pace does not unfold. In a scenario where the pace is just fast, I see three horses that look a cut above the others in terms of win potential – (8) Journalism, (17) Sandman, and (18) Sovereignty. I’ll play the majority of my tickets with Journalism on top because he fits my category of best horse in the race. I like Sovereignty slightly more than Sandman because I think Bill Mott has prepped him perfectly for this race. Trip will mean everything in separating those two. A win by any of these three would not be surprising.

Filling out exactas and trifectas is the challenge that can produce very nice payouts even when one of the favorites wins. Obviously, the three that I think can win are ones I think can hit the board in other spots as well. I see (4) Journalism and (9) Burnham Square as potential second place finishers if two of my top three do not get there. Others I like to include in trifecta and superfecta betting include (3) Final Gambit, (7) Luxor Café, (12) East Avenue, (13) Publisher, (14) Tiztastic, (16) Coal Battle, and (19) Chunk of Gold.

(21) Baeza is an alternate entry who will get in the field now only if there is another defection by 9:00 a.m. on Friday. If he does make the field I believe he’s capable of a finish as high as second place, and I will use him that way if he is lucky enough now to make it in.

My selections in the traditional five pick format are: 8-18-17-21-9