Rankings of 2018 Derby Contenders

By Bob Hill
TSV Staff writer —-

The Top Seven

All colts in my top seven have credentials that suggest the possibility of a Derby win. Collectively, the group includes winners of the major prep races, solid speed and pace figures, good pedigree, and top connections. If any one of this group wins the Derby I won’t be surprised. I may be disappointed because I cannot play seven horses to win, but I certainly would be able to say the winner showed the form and background of a Derby winner.

Justify (7) Trainer Bob Baffert Jockey: Mike Smith ML: 3-1
This colt won the Santa Anita Derby in his third lifetime start, all as a three-year-old. He is bucking the well-known fact that no horse has won the Derby since 1882 that did not race as a two-year-old. The good news is that the horse could care less about that statistic. If he is the real deal that some think he is, that 136-year drought will end this year. He gobbles up ground with immense strides and displays the athleticism associated with the best of the best. On the other hand, he lacks the experience of the great majority of past Derby winners.

Mendelssohn (14) Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore ML: 5-1
The colt has won races on three continents on three different surfaces (grass, synthetics, and dirt). He absolutely crushed the Dubai Derby. I’ve always said that the first Dubai Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby would beat me on the first Saturday in May. This guy has made me rethink that statement. He has the pedigree for dirt racing, his trainer is among the very best in the world, and his jockey is the best in Europe. Is the one to win the Derby after prepping abroad?

Bolt d’Oro (11) Trainer: Mick Ruiz Jockey: Victor Espinoza ML: 8-1
It is very possible that this colt would be at the top of the list if Justify had not emerged so brilliantly in the past two months. Bolt d’Oro could not catch Justify in the Santa Anita Derby, but the added distance, traffic, and all that goes with the Derby suggest he fits very well in this top tier of three-year-olds. Top West Coast horses have done well in recent Derby tries.

Good Magic (6) Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Jose Ortiz ML: 12-1
Okay, this guy was the 2yo Eclipse Award winner as the top of his division in 2017. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race last fall and redeemed himself the last time out in winning the Blue Grass Stakes. It is always risky to play against a Chad Brown trained horse. As noted above, he could fall anywhere on the list of top contenders without pushback from me. No one would have predicted his juicy morning line odds for the derby back in January.

Audible (5) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Javier Castellano ML: 5-1
Florida Derby winners often win or hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, so what is this year’s winner of that race doing down this far on my list? The answer, quite simply, is that I could make the case for any of these just about anywhere on the list, but you cannot put them all at the top. Audible is considered Pletcher’s best entry by many handicappers, and that is very high praise in a year when he has five good ones. It’s true that he got an ideal pace scenario in the Florida Derby, but that would be a relatively weak reason for downgrading that effort.

Vino Rosso (18) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez ML: 12-1
Here’s one more to cause me to consider eating my words. In recent years, I’ve come to downgrade horses that prep for the Derby in the Wood Memorial, but this colt might be good enough to win on Derby Day despite his last race coming in the Wood. He will get plenty of pace in the Derby which suits his closer style. Pletcher’s top jockey, Johnny V, chose this guy over the more heralded Audible and other Pletcher horses. The price is better on this one, to boot.

Magnum Moon (16) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Luis Saez ML: 6-1
Like Justify, he did not race as a two-year-old. Like Justify, he has been brilliant as a three-year-old, most recently as the winner of the Arkansas Derby. He has shown signs of being a little bit green when running down the stretch, but the results, nonetheless, are strong indeed. Maybe he is the wunderkind that others believe Justify is, and maybe if he were the only Pletcher entry he’d demand even more attention than he has received

The Middle Six

A Derby winner from this mid-tier group of horses would fall somewhere between surprising and shocking. There may be some in this group to consider playing in a trifecta or superfecta where they still would provide value to the ticket.

Hofberg (9) Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. ML: 20-1
Hofberg is another lightly raced colt that has shown marked improvement in a short time period. His runner-up performance in the Florida Derby suggests he belongs in this field, and continued improvement could land him a spot in the top three or four. Top connections. Definitely play on your longer tickets.

Noble Indy (19) Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Florent Geroux ML: 30-1
His win in the Louisiana Derby was gutsy. Many of the experts dismiss the Louisiana Derby winner out of hand when picking Derby winners, but remember that Gun Runner exited that race and went on to be outstanding. He’s not Pletcher’s best entry, but he may be capable of earning a share.

Enticed (12) Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado ML: 30-1
He owns a win at Churchill Downs in the top race for two-year-olds contested last fall. His effort was decent in the recent Wood Memorial. Another with top connections.

Solomini (17) Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Flavien Prat ML: 30-1
He is the “other” Bob Baffert horse in this race. He most likely will fall far back and make one sustained run late in the race. He is the type to clunk up for a third or fourth place finish under the right conditions.

Flameaway (4) Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano ML: 30-1
This guy is the steady type that shows up every race and gives a good accounting of himself. His best to date would not be good enough to win the Derby, but it is not impossible to see him finishing strong and passing tiring horses.

Lone Sailor (8) Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham ML: 50-1
Here’s a Fairgrounds-based colt running for a local New Orleans trainer. He’s 50-1 on the morning line. If you’ve heard this story before you may have cashed one of those big exacta tickets keyed by a Dallas Stewart trainee in a recent Derby. I’m going to play that angle just a little just in case.

The Bottom Seven

I cannot commend any of this group to you. If you like the name, the saddle cloth, or the number you should knock yourself out. From a handicapper’s perspective, there just is not much in the record to suggest a good outcome for the members of this group. Note: In the Kentucky Derby some really good horses are compromised by the time the field passes the grandstands on the first time around. That’s how some of the horses with little or no chance to win may finish in the top dozen or so places. The only way to predict that chaos is to guess well.

My Boy Jack (10) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux ML: 30-1
This guy has more experience than any horse in the field. He competes consistently at a level that suggests he’s a bit over his head in the Kentucky Derby.

Free Drop Willy (2) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Robby Albarado ML: 30-1
Dale Romans grew up at Churchill Downs. He has many fans there who over bet his entries. FDW’s third place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes will give those fans the reason they need to bet him. Don’t be fooled.

Instilled Regard (15) Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke ML: 50-1
He has been a notch or two below the top West Coast colts this year. It would take miraculous improvement for him to contest for a top spot.

Combatant (20) Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. ML: 50-1
The far outside post position will make even tougher for this colt.

Promises Fulfilled (3) Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie ML: 50-1
Suicidal fractions in the Florida Derby did him in completely. One has to wonder if his connections will try to restrain him early, or will they let him fly. Given his inside post draw, I think he will be one of the pacesetters.

Firenze Fire (1) Trainer: John Service Jockey: Paco Lopez ML: 50-1
He has drawn the toughest post position. Most question whether he could make the distance under the best of circumstances. His connections at least get to say that he go in the gate on Derby Day.

Bravazo (13) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Luis Contreras ML: 50-1
He is another that bombed in his last Derby prep race. He likely will try to make the lead and see how far he can hold onto it. Lukas has one like this almost every year now.

Cover Photo: Justify & trainer Bob Baffert; Zoe Metz Photo