Handicapping: Florida Derby Day Late Pick 4 & 5

By Bob Hill
Tracksideview Feature Columnist —-

Late Pick 4 and Pick 5

Gulfstream Park Florida Derby Day 2021

All eyes will be on Gulfstream Park on Saturday afternoon for the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby. That race is the anchor leg of both the late Pick 4 and Pick 5. Here’s a suggested way to approach playing those two betting opportunities in tandem. Good luck to all.

Race 10 Pan American G2 – 1-1/2 miles on turf

I see four horses to play in this race which is the first leg in the Pick 5. Cross Border (1), Temple (2), and Sadler’s Joy (3) are all low-odds entries that are hard to separate. Sadler’s Joy is the most accomplished and wins now at age 8 about once in five tries. Cross Border has competed very favorably with Sadler’s Joy as recently as last summer. Temple may be a small step below those two, but he has been in the exacta in 8 of 11 races on the grass at Gulfstream and should not be ignored. The fourth play is Moon Over Miami (7), an emerging four-year-old that will try 12 furlongs for the first time. He has continued to improve as the distances have increased. Play 1,2,3,7.

Race 11 Cutter Bay – 1 mile on turf

This race is the first leg of the pick 4 and the second leg of the Pick 5. Lightly-raced Hyperforce (1) and Annex (6) are out of top barns. The latter is undefeated in two tires on grass, and the former won his first grass start last out getting up at the wire in OC/75k contest at Gulfstream. Both are sons of Constitution. I will play both in the Pick 5. In the Pick 4 I plan to go deeper adding Lucky Law (4), King of Dreams (5), and Step Dancer (8). Lucky Law broke his maiden on the GP turf in January before detouring to the dirt in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. King of Dreams similarly won on grass at GP in January before trying dirt in the Tampa Bay Derby. He won that race going gate-to-wire on the lead and most likely will try to repeat that approach here. Step Dancer is trained by Barclay Tagg and last raced at Belmont Park in October. He gets Jose Ortiz in the irons, a jockey-trainer combo that produces wins at a 38 percent clip. Play 1,6 in the Pick5. Play 1,4,5,6,8 in the Pick 4.

Race 12 Gulfstream Park Oaks G2 – 1-1/16 miles

Three fillies in this race stand out in this field of seven, although no entry owns a win in a graded stakes. Con Lima (1) returns to dirt for Todd Pletcher following four races on grass. She broke her maiden last July on this track at the distance of 7 furlongs. She has run on or near the lead in nearly all of her races. Crazy Beautiful (3) is the slight ML favorite for Kenny McPeek after her second place finish in the G2 Davona Dale last month. She is battle tested in strong company. Millefeuille (6) was beaten over 20 lengths in that same race which appears to be one to toss. Prior to that poor effort she finished in the exacta all three tries in New York last fall. She is a daughter of Curlin. Play 1,3,6

Race 13 Orchid G3 – 1-3/8 miles on turf

Always Shopping (9) rides a two-race winning streak coming into the Orchid. She spent her three-year-old campaign for Todd Pletcher running on dirt, but moved to grass last year and owns three wins on turf since making that move. Always Shopping is 8-5 on the ML, and I expect she will be even shorter odds at post time. My value play in this race is Morning Molly (4), trained by Tom Proctor. She has been in the exacta in her last seven races, the most recent of which was the G2 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs three weeks ago. I will play these two in both bets. Sorrel (5) is the unknow in here, making her first North American start for Christophe Clemente. She has raced seven times in Great Britain for Michael Stoute, winning three and hitting the board six times. It is hard to know the caliber of competition she has faced as she has not made in starts in Group 1,2, or 3 company. I will add her to my ticket in the Pick4.Play4,9in both the Pick4and5. Add 5to the Pick4.

Race 14 Florida Derby G1 – 1-1/8 miles

I have liked Greatest Honour (7) from the first time I saw him race. He more than meets the eye test for me, but his rather common speed figures in the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull invite the question about the quality of horses he has beaten. Many players will single him at very short odds. As a fan, I’d like for him to win. As a handicapper I have to take a shot at beating him. Known Agenda (5) did beat Greatest Honour last November in a MSW at Aqueduct at this 9 furlong distance. That was the last time Greatest Honour lost. Soup and Sandwich (8) and Collaborate (9) are two colts with similar profiles. Each has raced twice. They own wins stalking or setting the pace with speed figures comparable to Greatest Honour. Both are sons of Into Mischief. I’ll play them along with the top two on both tickets. I have not forgotten Spielberg (10), and I am aware that Hot Rod Charlie’s win in the Louisiana Derby might suggest that the California-based horses are a superior bunch this year. Play 5,7,8,9,10

Pick 5

Race 10: 1,2,3,7

Race 11: 1,6

Race 12: 1,3,6

Race 13: 4,9

Race 14: 5,7,8,9,10

Total $120

Pick 4

Race 11: 1,4,5,6,8

Race 12: 1,3,6

Race 13: 4,5,9

Race 14:5,7,8,9,10

Total: $112.50