View From the Grandstandstand Picks: Belmont Stakes Picks

by Bob Hill, TSV staff writer

Now that the smoke from the Canadian fires has subsided to an acceptable level we can turn our attention to what should be a competitive Belmont Stakes. This race could lend some clarity to the ranking of this crop of three-year-olds if one of the top ones wins, but the possibility also exists that the results could muddy the waters even further if one of several capable mid-priced shooters spring an upset.

1 – Tapit Shoes (20-1) – Cox/J. Ortiz: Improving son of Tapit hasn’t won a graded stakes nor posted an eye-popping speed figure, but the pedigree and trend of improvement make him worthy of consideration for one of the minor spots.

2 – Tapit Trice (3-1) – Pletcher/Saez: Ran a disappointing 7th in the Kentucky Derby. He is definitely a one run colt with extremely strong pedigree and trainer connections. His stablemate is the 5-2 ML favorite, but my guess is this one will go off as the race-time pick of the fans. He’s a definite win contender and will be in my exacta for sure.

3 – Arcangelo (8-1) – Antonucci/Castellano: Can this jockey win another leg of the Triple Crown after piloting Mage home in the Derby? Arcangelo is skyrocketing in his improvement in his last four races. He’s bred to do this, and another step forward puts him right there with the top contenders. He, too, will be in my exacta boxes and on my Pick 5 tickets as a winner.

4 – National Treasure (5-1) – Baffert/Velazquez: He had a dream setup in the Preakness and was good enough to deliver. Most pundits are predicting he will get more pace pressure in this race, but I am not as sure of that as they seem to me. Others that may be forwardly placed have not been need-the-lead types up until now. This would not be the first race where the pace scenario differs from the predicted. Either way, I do not see this horse winning the Belmont Stakes because of the distance.

5 – Il Miracolo (30-1) – Sano/Meneses : This one gets mentioned as a pace factor, but in his biggest race to date (Florida Derby) he was a “no show.” I think a repeat here is likely.

6 – Forte (5-2) – Pletcher/I.Ortiz: We get to finally find out if this guy is what he was hyped up to be, or was the betting public correct as they faded him in the run-up to the Derby. His unfortunate Derby scratch and related Preakness absence make this picture murky. The race should clear things up quite a bit. If you have liked him all along, get after it. If you’re hesitant, include underneath. I’ll do the latter.

7 – Hit Show (10-1) – Cox/Franco: He hung around that wicked pace in the Derby for a very long time. Only one other runner did so. Those who knock Hit Show cite his experience in New York as lacking in quality competition. I think he already answered that question in the Derby. I’ll have him in my exacta box because with only slight improvement from the Derby he competes here.

8 – Angel of Empire (7-2) – Cox/Prat: I picked this guy to win the Derby, and I thought he ran a very good race. Castellano on Mage beat Flavien Prat on Angel of Empire to the punch in starting their run for the wire. That short-moment first -ump was the winner for Mage and the loser for Angel. I hope Prat learned from that. I still like Angel of Empire the BEST of all these.

9 – Red Route One (15-1) – Asmussen/Rosario: This guy is a one-run deep closer. He often leaves himself too much work to win, but also usually is in contention for the bottom pieces. Wash, rinse, repeat!