Handicapping: The Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes

By Bob Hill
TSV Feature Writer —-

Blue Grass Stakes Selections

Keeneland (G1) 1-1/8 miles on main track

Moved from its normal Saturday run date to this Tuesday due to the
dangerous storms that ravaged the Mid-South, the G1 Blue Grass Stakes
is the final 200-point Kentucky Derby prep race. The Blue Grass
represents a chance for its top two finishers to make the Derby field
regardless of previous race results. Additionally, based on points
already earned, as many as three others could make the Derby field
with a finish no better than third place. These facts speak to the
contentious nature of the race and the handicapping
opportunity/challenge that it presents.

1 – River Thames (5-2): The ML favorite has the best figures coming
into this race. He ran very well in the G2 Fountain of Youth losing
at the wire to Sovereignty, one that many think is a top Derby
contender. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets aboard for Todd Pletcher, replacing
John Velazquez in what speaks volumes of the connection’s belief that
this is the trainer’s top Derby hopeful. With three very fast
frontrunning types here, the test for River Thames will be negotiating
his place among that trio. I suspect Ortiz will try to lay just of the
pace set by either Owen Almighty and/or East Avenue. Clearly one of
the win contenders.

2 – Render Judgment (20-1): Finished a non-threatening second in the
Virginia Derby, this McPeek trainee needs a top two finish here to
make the Derby Field. He’s already competed at this distance, and his
recent past suggests he is not fast enough to compete with this bunch.
His only hope would be a complete pace collapse.

3 – Burnham Square (9-2): He was an impressive winner of the G3 Holy
Bull in early February, but finished a disappointing fourth as the
favorite in the G2 Fountain of Youth last month. The shape of this
race should give him a fast early pace to close into, so if he is good
enough and if he can move forward I think he has a chance. He should
enjoy the added distance. Much to prove, but he could do so.

4 – Owen Almighty (3-1): Trainer Brian Lynch has admitted concern
that he is distance limited, naming the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day as a
targeted alternative. The horse, however, keeps winning impressively.
He’ll face others as fast as he is during what could shape up to be a
contentious pace. I’m inclined to think his handler knows his horse
better than anyone else. Like others more.

5 – East Avenue (3-1): This Brendan Walsh trainee has become an
enigma. He was the ML favorite last fall in the BC Juvenile and again
in the G2 Risen Star back in February. He bombed in both, losing by a
combined 35 lengths. He gets blinkers for the first time, and his
recent works are very strong. When on his game, he is a strong front
runner. As noted above, there are three such horses in this field
which could lead to some fast early fractions. He has to have a top
two finish to make the Derby field for Godolphin. His best race was
run on this track. Contender.

6 – Chancer McPatrick (7-2): Best race came in the one-turn Champagne
last October. His move to two-turn races saw regression. His
runner-up finish in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby was decent but not
eye-popping. Chad Brown runners have not been dominant in recent
weeks, and have doubts he can win. A piece is probably more likely
than a win.

7 – Admiral Dennis (20-1): Brad Cox always has his horses ready when
he enters them. This guy is not a star in his very deep barn and
looks up against it here. He needs a pace melt down to compete for
any piece of this.

If the pacesetters can avoid going too fast I think that East Avenue
and River Thames will battle to the finish line. If they go even a
little too fast I look for Burnham Square and Chancer McPatrick to be
the best of the closers. If you can foresee a complete melt down,
the long shots could finish off a trifecta or superfecta.

Selections: 5-1-3-6-4

Selections: 1-4-2-5-3