Betting the Preakness Trust Your Intuition or Go by the Numbers

By Bob Hill,
TSV Staff Writer —-

With an odds-n favorite in a nine horse field, the Preakness looks to be a tough place to score big on Saturday. Handicappers applying their standard tools cannot escape the fact that Journalism (2) looks much the best in this field. The other four horses offering ML odds below 6-1 all offer some basis of hope, but at the same time each also waves a red warning flag. The ones with ML odds in double digit territory wave the red warning flag even more prominently, and the glimmers of hope require hunches and intuition. Here’s a look at each one, followed by a suggested approach.

1 – Goal Oriented (6-1): He’s two for two. His speed figures suggest he may be the speed of the speed. He looks quite a lot like Baffert’s fall back plan on his original fall back plan. Needs dream trip on the lead that is more unlikely than probable.

2 – Journalism (8-5): Towers over this bunch based on past running lines. McCarthy trained him to go for the Triple Crown, so his presence here suggests he is fit and healthy. At even odds, he’ll be a bargain, meaning a big score requires a very big bet.

3 – American Promise (15-1): D. Wayne Lukas has picked off every horse player at one time or another with horses that profiled just like this one. They sprinkle in an occasional unexpected top effort amongst a collection of mediocrity. Just the kind of Lukas horse to blow up a whole bunch of logical tickets. Capable of efforts that would lose a first level allowance race.

4 – Heart of Honor (12-1): Has been in the exacta in all six lifetime starts. Finished second in the G2 UAE Derby. Has a positive Thoro-graph pattern with a “2” in his last start. Ridden by a 5% European jockey in an American race on dirt. Was beaten in the UAE Derby by the horse that finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby.

5 – Pay Billy (20-1): Winner of the local prep race for the Preakness. Has been very successful in Maryland at Laurel Park. The Tesio has not been a race that produces winners of the Preakness. Has to improve markedly to compete. Hunch play at best.

6 – River Thames (9-2): Top connections do not enter the Preakness on a whim. Narrowly beaten in the G2 Fountain of Youth and the G1 Blue Grass. Has run four solid races, but has not improved his numbers across the span of four months. The average length of wins by the offspring of his sire Maclean’s Music is the sprint distance of six furlongs.

7 – Sandman (4-1): The beauty pageant winner of every race he enters. Will get a solid pace to run into here. Up until the Kentucky Derby he’d hit the board in five straight starts. Was the most over bet entry in the Derby and promises to being over bet here. Much more likely for bottom of trifectas and superfectas than being in the exacta.

8 – Clever Again (5-1): Trained by Steve Asmussen and the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, he owns the second highest Beyer speed figure in the field. Two straight impressive wins when routing at Oaklawn Park. Race pattern raises the question of his being a “bounce” candidate

9 – Gosger (20-1): One of only three graded stakes winners in this field. Race pattern makes him candidate to run a lifetime best race this time. If he does so, he is seriously over laid at a price of 20-1. Hunch bet for me in the exotics at a price.

My selections: 2-9-8-3-7

Key bets: $10 exacta box 2,9 Total cost $20
$ 1 trifecta box 2,3,8,9 Total cost $24
$.50 part wheel trifecta 1,2,8 w/ 1,2,8,9 w/ all Total cost $21