Handicapping Derby Prep Races Coast to Coast

The Three Key Derby Preps

By Bob Hill

In a made-for-TV hour of racing on Saturday afternoon three major Kentucky Derby preps will be run in a coast-to-coast trio of contests that will further solidify answers to which three-year-olds fill the gates at Churchill Downs on May 1. Here are some thoughts on these races listed in the time order of their post times.

All three of these races are 100-40-20-10 points affairs for Derby qualifying. With few exceptions, the runners in these races need points to make the field on May 1. The cutoff could be as low as 40 points, but it could be slightly higher depending on results in these races and the few remaining after this weekend. It’s now over never in most cases.

Wood Memorial G2 – 1-1/8 miles – Aqueduct Race 10 – Post time 6:28 p.m. EDT

Questions abound in what should be the best betting race in this sequence. Those questions include, “How good is Prevalence (6)?” Another is, “How good are Chad Brown’s pair of entries, Crowded Trade (2) and Risk Taking (4)?” Then there’s the issue of James Jerken’s Weyburn (8) who shocked us at odds of 46-1 in winning the G3 Gotham. Or if you’re still looking for an angle, “Can we dismiss Brooklyn Strong (1), the winner of the Remsen last November?” Oh, and one more: “Can Candy Man Rocket (7) rebound from his disaster in the Tampa Bay Derby for Bill Mott in a year where we’ve seen others rebound?”

I have great respect for three of the trainers of the five horses listed above. Brendan Walsh trained a Dubai winner this year for Godolphin, the owner and breeder of Prevalence. That one owns two impressive wins in his only two lifetime starts, and so impressed odds makers and the betting public that he took significant money in the futures pools even though he enters here with 0 qualifying points. He’s royally bred, and is one I will play. James Jerkens is someone whose horses I always pay attention to, and his trainee Weyburn is the royally bred son of Pioneer of the Nile out of an A.P. Indy mare. He earned 50 points when winning the Gotham. Watch the tote board on him.

I’m going to relegate Brooklyn Strong (10 Derby points), Crowded Trade (20 points), and Candy Man Rocket (10 points) to underneath plays in trifecta and superfecta bets. My play on Candy Man Rocket is a bow to Bill Mott who has become a serious Triple Crown player late in his Hall of Fame career. That leaves Risk Taking (10 points) as my third win contender .along with Prevalence and Weyburn. I’ll dismiss the others. I admit to some sentimentality in the following picks. 8-6-4-7-2-1

Bluegrass Stakes G2 – 1-1/8 miles – Keeneland Race 11 – Post time 6:35 p.m. EDT

Undefeated Essential Quality (4), the 3-5 ML favorite, puts his four race win streak on the line in this race. With 40 qualifying points in the bank already he is not under pressure to produce a win, but his connections and many of the betting public see him as the favorite in the Derby field. I’m sure they have him entered here to win and go into the Derby with a perfect record. He is yet to post a 100 Beyer figure, so that is a likely goal for this barn. Like most, I’m handicapping to find the runner-up in this race.

Chad Brown chose to enter Highly Motivated (3) here rather than at Aqueduct, speaking volumes about his confidence of a top two finish. Anything less will keep him on the sidelines for the Derby as he has only 10 qualifying points thus far. He owns a win on this track and is a logical play behind Essential Quality. Keepmeinmind (9) earned his 18 points during his two-year-old campaign and has raced only once in 2021. He finished a distant sixth in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn and has to perform today to make the Derby cut. Vicky Oliver is an underrated trainer who enters Hidden Stash (1) here off a second place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. With 22 qualifying points already, a third place finish might get him in the Derby gate. He’s a late running type, so he may suffer from the lack of speed up front in this field that sports few speed burners.

Rombauer (5) won the El Camino Derby on synthetics, but he will need to run faster than ever before for Michael McCarthy. He has 14 qualifying points. Hush of a Storm (7) is another coming off a win on synthetics. He was scratched from the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park last weekend where he was 4-1 ML co-favorite. He’s bred to run all day, so we’ll find out how he fares on dirt on Saturday. The others are ones I’ll toss. Picks: 4-3-1-5- 9

Santa Anita Derby – G1 – Santa Anita Race 8 – Post time 7:15 p.m. EDT

Five horses in this field will be making their third lifetime starts. Three of them have only run in MSW contests, and none appears to be the next coming of Justify. I’ll toss those three, including Baffert’s Defunded (10). That one is sure to be over bet. Rock Your World (3) owns two wins on turf for veteran handler John Sadler. His sire Candy Ride produces winners on both surfaces so who can blame Sadler for taking a shot. He has 0 qualifying points. Dream Shake (2) is the second betting favorite on the ML at odds of 7-2 based on his gritty third place finish in the San Felipe behind Life Is Good and Medina Spirit (7). That one is the 5-2 ML favorite in this race. Medina Spirit has won both races when he did not face Life Is Good and finished second to that one in his other two tries. He will go off at odds much shorter than his ML.

Roman Centurian (1) was beaten only a neck by Medina Spirit in the Robert Lewis Stakes, and finished fourth in the San Felipe. He certainly merits consideration for at least a minor award in this race. Another in that category is The Great One (9) who is trained by Doug O’Neil. He has faced tough company almost every time out. Parnelli (4) showed promise as a two-year-old but has been beaten a combined 33 lengths in his most recent two stakes starts. He’ll have to return to earlier form to get even a small piece.

I have a hard time playing against Baffert at Santa Anita so I’m picking Medina Spirit on top. I’ll play several on an exacta ticket under him hoping for some value, but I will not be surprised for a chalky outcome. Picks: 7-2-1-9-3